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Why Does This Seem So Apropos?

Fed Intends to Hire Lobbyist in Campaign to Buttress Its ImageBloomberg.com – Robert Schmidt – 5 June 09

The Federal Reserve intends to hire a veteran lobbyist as it seeks to counter skepticism in Congress about the central bank’s growing power over the U.S. financial system, people familiar with the matter said…Linda Robertson …headed the Washington lobbying office of Enron Corp…also an adviser to all three of the Clinton administration’s Treasury secretaries….Lawrence Summers, Robert Rubin and Lloyd Bentsen…”People have been asking whether the Fed is capable of getting its job done right,” said Lynn Turner, a former chief accountant at the Securities and Exchange Commission. “Hiring a former lobbyist from Enron will surely make one wonder.”..

Posted in Finance & Economics.


Shopping Mall or Corporate Headquarters?

Shopping Mall or Corporate Headquarters?Businessweek via A Daily Dose of Architecture3 May 09

From above this large complex, marked by a T-shaped skylit building, looks like it could be a shopping mall, especially with the numerous parking lots. But could it be a corporate headquarters, similar in scale to a shopping mall?


mall-or-hq

Click here for answer

Posted in Planning & Design.


Sex, Money, Entrepreneurship, Befuddled Tax Collectors, Religious Hypocrites, Bribery, Submissive Democrats – Too Good to Pass Up

Threads and Leather Straps Bind a BusinessNew York Times – Adam B. Ellick – 27 April 09

… deep in the nation’s commercial capital, just next door to a mosque and the offices of a radical Islamic organization, in an unmarked house two Pakistani brothers have discovered a more liberal and lucrative use for the scourge: the $3 billion fetish and bondage industry in the West.

Their mom-and-pop-style garment business, AQTH, earns more than $1 million a year manufacturing 2,000 fetish and bondage products, including the Mistress Flogger, and exporting them to the United States and Europe….

It helps that the dozens of veiled and uneducated female laborers who assemble the handmade items – gag balls, lime-green corsets, thonged spanking skirts – have no idea what the items are used for. Even the owners’ wives, and their conservative Muslim mother, have not been informed.

“If our mom knew, she would disown us,” said Adnan, seated on a leopard-print fabric covering his desk chair…

Even customs officials were perplexed at how to tax the items, not quite sure what they were, they said.

Recently, when a curious employee inquired about the purpose of the sleep sack, a sleeping bag-like product used in certain kinds of bondage, she was told it was a body bag for the American military in Iraq…

Still, word of the business has at times escaped. Last year four “powerful guys” from a conservative Muslim group threatened to burn down the factory if it was not closed within a week. The brothers calmly explained that it was merely a business, and that the items were not used in Pakistan. The next day they bribed a local Islamic political organization to ensure their safety…

Then, they discovered a kind of straitjacket online. At first, they thought it was used for psychiatric patients, but it quickly led them to learn about the lucrative fetish industry.

Today, they sell their products to online and brick-and-mortar shops, and to individuals via eBay. Their market research, they said, showed that 70 percent of their customers were middle- to upper-class Americans, and a majority of them Democrats. The Netherlands and Germany account for the bulk of their European sales.

“We really believe that if you are persistent and hard working, there is an opportunity, in any harsh environment, even in an economically depressed environment like Pakistan,” Rizwan said.

A major perk, they say, is attending international fetish shows to see how their products hold up in action.

“I go to Sin City every year,” said Rizwan, referring to Las Vegas in a sheepish laugh. It’s all business, he said. “Clients know our country and culture, and they don’t invite us to participate. We’re a little bit shy.”

Posted in Finance & Economics.


Quote du jour: Tom Petty

“As we celebrate mediocrity,
All the boys upstairs wanna see,
How much you’ll pay for
What you used to get for free.”

Tom Petty


Posted in Quotes.


Peter Zumthor Wins Pritzker Prize

Swiss architect Peter Zumthor wins the Prizker and deservedly so. One of my favorite architects who spends his time on timeless designs instead of his ego. Links to his articles and photos of his work:

Peter Zumthor is awarded the Pritzker Prize 2009Dialog: Notes on architecture from Switzerland

Zumthor in the UKArchitecture MNP

Peter Zumthor speaks to the Architect’s JournalThe Architect’s Journal: the home of British architecture

Paul Goldberger: Peter Zumthor’s Quiet PowerThe New Yorker

Peter Zumthor Wins the PritzkerInhabitat

Thomas Mayer Archive

zumthorrorybregenz

Bregenz Museum – The New Yorker (Photograph: Rory Hyde, CC BY-SA)

peterzumthor3

Spa at Hotel Therme (Inhabitat)

110al20070524d06441

Brother-Claus- Chapel (Thomas Mayer Archive)

Posted in Planning & Design.


AIG: Luckily Santa Didn’t Refinance the North Pole

An interesting little side story to the AIG debacle – how AIG introduced Canadians to sub-prime mortgages. I especially love the quote from AIG’s top executive in Canada: “In terms of exposure to the government, the practical likelihood of AIG, an organization with $800-billion in assets, ever coming to the government for anything as it relates to a claim is not nil, but it is as close to nil as it possibly could be.”

How high-risk mortgages crept northGlobe and Mail – Jacquie McNish and Greg McArthur – 02 April 09

The untold story of how elements of the first Conservative budget in 2006 encouraged the entry into Canada of such big U.S. players as AIG, creating our version of subprime mortgages

In the first half of this year, as the subprime mortgage crisis was exploding in the United States, a contagion of U.S.-style lending practices quietly crossed the border and infected Canada’s previously prudent mortgage regime.

New mortgage borrowers signed up for an estimated $56-billion of risky 40-year mortgages, more than half of the total new mortgages approved by banks, trust companies and other lenders during that time, according to banking and insurance sources. Those sources estimated that 10 per cent of the mortgages, worth about $10-billion, were taken out with no money down…

The story of how the U.S. housing crisis spread to Canada is a tale of carefully orchestrated U.S. corporate lobbying, failed public-policy promises and government inaction to numerous private and public warnings about reckless mortgage practices…

Click here for the full story

Posted in Finance & Economics, Real Estate Investing.


Geithner’s Plan: I’ll Pay You to Shoot Me in the Foot?

Geithner’s plan uses stress tests to force banks to sell assets to “public/private partnerships” directed by “private investors” whose incentives are to buy the best assets at the cheapest price. The taxpayers subsidize the pools with cheap financing and continue to subsidize the banks now stripped of any undervalued assets and left with the most toxic of their assets – and then even non-participants are required to mark-to-market to the depressed prices bid by the “private partners” who make large bonuses while the taxpayers foot the bill – sounds like a plan to me.

Geithner’s plan assumes that the big issues are a) a credit crunch and b) a liquidity crunch. The counter is that a) demand for credit is down since the economy is down and smaller banks are lending and b) the cause is an asset crunch, i.e. the bubble has collapsed, the emperor is naked, and we ain’t worth what we thought we were. If Geithner is correct, more money, more credit, liquid plumber works. If the asset collapsing arguments are correct, then Geithner is simply trying to re-inflate the bubble, zombie banks are funnels for government money going down the drain, and the patient is bleeding out faster than then they can pump plasma in.

The reality is both and more. The bubble has collapsed. The “assets” aren’t worth what everyone claimed they were worth and financial institutions, companies, and households have far less net worth than they thought they had. And the economy is slumping and creditworthy borrowers aren’t so creditworthy anymore. And yes – some assets overshot on the downside and are now undervalued. Surprise, surprise markets aren’t really efficient – who’d have thunk?

The real problem with Geithner’s plan: it focuses on Wall Street and money-center banks. It assumes that they are the economic heart and if we keep them pumping the blood will flow through to Main Street and homo economicus will eventually heal with the assistance of a few other government interventions. But perhaps it would be more efficent and effective to triage and go directly to the problems. Instead of pouring money into AIG so it can forward the funds to it’s counterparties – why not put it in bankruptcy – spin out the insurance and other functioning divisions and tell the counterparties to call the Treasury if AIG’s default was too much to bear? At least then we would have an inkling of where the money was going. Of course it would be quite an interesting political battle get such honesty through Congress!

In the meantime, Wall Street is already figuring out how to scam the system.

And of course – what if no one shows up at the auction?

Geithner Deals Wall Street a Can’t-Lose Hand- Bloomberg.com -  Margaret Carlson – 26 March 09

…To love Geithner’s plan, you have to embrace his philosophy that what’s good for Wall Street is good for America. Under it, bad banks and the bad bankers who run them will get bailed out, bonused up and bankrolled for another roll of the dice at the high-stakes table in what’s called the “legacy securities” program.

…This casino differs from those in Las Vegas in that the bank plays with Other People’s Money and if anyone loses, it’s on the house. And oh yes, dear taxpayer, we’re the house. Without even the momentary thrill of placing chips on the table, the taxpayer picks up the tab.

…Leveraging Other People’s Money got us in the trouble we’re in. A year from now, members of Congress besieged by angry constituents suckered again may lock and load anew trying to do something about the windfall that went to Wall Street while the economy remained frozen for Main Street.

Click here for the full article

Private Public Partnership Details EmergingNaked Capitalism – Yves Smith – 21 March 09

…If the money committed to this program is less than the book value of the assets the banks want to unload (or the banks are worried about that possibility), the banks have an incentive to try to ditch their worst dreck first…the banks, as in normal auctions, will presumably set a reserve price equal to the value of the assets on their books. If the price does not meet the reserve (and the level of the reserve is not disclosed to the bidders), there is no sale…A competitive bidding process will elicit a higher price which is BAD for taxpayers!…

Click here for the full article

Reorganising the banks: Focus on the liabilities, not the assetsVOX - Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer – 21 March 09

Fixing the banks is an absolute priority in G7 nations. Doing this by buying toxic assets is costly, inefficient, and risky. Governments should focus on which liabilities, rather than which assets, they need to support. This column proposes creating “bridge” banks as a way of re-establishing a healthy banking system.

Summary of the argument

1. We cannot efficiently value or transfer “toxic” assets – so a good plan cannot depend upon this.

2. The UK’s Special Resolution Regime, or one similar to that of the US FDIC, can cleanly split off the key banking functions into a new “bridge” bank, leaving liabilities behind in an “old” bank, thus also removing creditors’ bargaining power.

3. Creditors left behind in the old bank can be fairly compensated by giving them the equity in the new bank.

4. We can pick and choose which creditors we wish to “top up” beyond this level, but should not indiscriminately make all creditors completely whole as in recent bailouts.

5. Coordinating actions with other countries will reduce any risks.

Click here for the full article

Good Bank vs. Bad Bank: Don’t touch the unsecured creditors! Clobber the tax payer instead. Not.VOX – Willem Buiter – 14 March 09

Zombie banks need fixing. Good Bank and Bad Bank solutions are the leading contenders. This column reviews the implications for distributional, incentive, and financial stability effects. It argues that too-big-too-fail bank should immediately be taken into public ownership and restructured decisively through a mandatory debt-to-equity conversion or debt write-down. The Fed and Treasury have been captured by save-unsecured-creditors reasoning pushed by special interest groups.

Click here for the full article

Geithner plan will rob American taxpayers: StiglitzReuters – Susan Fenton and Deborah Kan – 24 March 09

The U.S. government plan to rid banks of toxic assets will rob American taxpayers by exposing them to too much risk and is unlikely to work as long as the economy remains weak…”The Geithner plan is very badly flawed,”…offered “perverse incentives,” …”Quite frankly, this amounts to robbery of the American people. I don’t think it’s going to work because I think there’ll be a lot of anger about putting the losses so much on the shoulder of the American taxpayer.”….

Click here for the full article

Posted in Finance & Economics.


Perhaps They Confused Feet and Meters?

Design Fail: Melli Bank in IranHuffington Post – Alex Leo – 31 January 09

An ATM built by Melli, Iran’s largest bank seems to have not been well thought out during the design phase of construction:


Posted in Planning & Design.


He’s Back !!!

In response to a passing comment by a “fan” (who for his own safety shall remain nameless but live forever as proof that one vote can make a difference) I’ve started blogging again. It’s actually been a fairly busy time. I’ve moved my office and affiliated with a new firm – SCS (click the tab above for more info) and given the enduring credit crunch – have been busier than the proverbial one arm paper hanger.

I even took a trip to Warsaw to look at a property for a client.  W.C. Fields once commented that he spent a year in Philadelphia – he thinks it was a Sunday. My two days in Warsaw wasn’t quite a year but was six weeks of the Warsaw flu. But I was favorably impressed by a number of items 1) the Polish economy is actually still growing (for those who have forgotten, that’s when the GDP becomes larger rather than smaller), 2) the architecture looked interesting from what I could see in the gloomy light, 3) it was interesting being in a city whose skyline wasn’t dominated by cranes and empty buildings as the banks in Poland stopped lending sooner than elsewhere (not through prescience but because most of the banks are foreign owned and the parent banks needed the money to try to shore up their other units), and finally 4) a surprising bit of honesty. As with most hotels, there was a guide to the city. I opened it expecting to read about Warsaw: “Paris on the Vistula” – instead the opening statement was that there is a worse time to be in Warsaw than February – it was called WW II – and that if you are in Warsaw in February you have the flu – don’t bother thinking about it. How true, six weeks later after infecting fellow workers and family I can affirm that truth of that statement. But, oh would that Wall Street had even a shadow of such a sense of honesty. But anyway, I give you fair warning and a day to visit my website and remove your name from the mailing list. Beyond that, no promises.

Posted in Other Interesting.


2009 Not So Fine

I thought today would be a good day to make my 2009 predictions as Obama is sworn in and Bush retreats farther into his delusional world. So here they are.

Obama will be a good president (compared to actual presidents not just Bush) and possibly a very good president (I’m siding with Paul Krugman who said that great presidents arise from facing great crises so let’s hope Obama doesn’t have an opportunity to be great). He seems to understand the depth and breath of the economic crisis with talk of trillons of dollars in real economic investments not just bigger swimming pools. Talk of applying the good/bad bank model to the entire economy can be interesting but so far seems more focused on applying a bigger bandaid/bankaid than a systemic cure and there has been little said about how to address the moral hazard issues of a bail-out without consequences for those who caused the problem (after all responsibility is for pregnant teenagers not the masters of the universe or politicians who find the law overly constrictive).

Like all presidents, he’ll have a “honeymoon” period that in his case will end sometime around 10:00 a.m. on the 21st depending on if the Republicans sleep in late after their inauguration wake. Their criticisms will build over the week  (look he’s slept in the White House and the economy hasn’t gotten better) until Sunday when it will hit the MSM (main stream media) on the talk shows and ignite a push back (don’t expect miracles, give him another week). This will be against a backdrop of rapid action by the Administration (Republican complaints about inaction will have nothing to do with reality but that’s never stopped them before) such as releasing the balance of the TARP funds with provisions for some of it actually getting beyond the banks (being cynical, the whole thing was just a transfer of funds from the public to the banks in the first place and had nothing to do with the real world economy.) But this will be mostly politics and confidence building, the real work will be in the Congress and the offices of bureaucrats.

Since the U.S. has moved from majority rule with respect for minority rights to minority rule with no respect for the majority’s wishes (before calling me a cynic, try to get a bill through Congress with 41 Senators opposed) – we can assume that Congress will distort any proposal by Obama and diluting the positive impact. As to the new senior bureaucrats, making me nervous is that too many of his appointments don’t bode well for major systemic changes. He has promoted Tim Giether who presided over the NY Fed, the Fed’s front line on supervising the investment banking and global banking worlds, who was silent while investment finance became a con game. The mere fact that Wall Street approves of his appointment since “he understands the Street” should make you nervous. Obama has also promoted Mary Schapiro, the head of FINRA – Wall Street’s self-regulatory body (has anyone ever suggested a mafia self-regulatory body?), who failed to notice what was happening and whined at her confirmation hearing that FINRA wasn’t responsible because no one had complained to them – a truly Greenspanian concept of ex post facto regulation, i.e. spend the government’s money cleaning up after the exploded bubble instead of preventing it. They will be “supervised” by Larry Summers who everyone refers to as an economic genius – a title he earned when working with Rubin to convince the Democrats that deregulation and securitization was the economic panacea. He was recently forced out as President of Harvard for among other things saying the women’s brains may not be as good as men’s for science and math – perhaps given recent history we should ask if men’s brains are any good for finance and economics but I diverge. Of course as with so many Obama appointees, people say that Obama will make the actual decisions which makes you wonder why these people are being paid if Obama is going to do all the work.

Be that as it may, my predictions for real estate are:

Housing will continue down with some sharp drops but basically hit bottom sometime in the second/third quarter – but the bottom will be mud. Bottom fishing will start in the second quarter until the bottom fishers realize that they are chasing prices down. The industry will start feeling better in the third/fourth quarter 2009 (or least not feel worse) and the real recovery will be in second/third quarter 2010.

But don’t worry. The world will still be exciting because the decline in the commercial market will pick up steam and go full blown this year. By second quarter, the industry will move from calling for help to shouting and the government will respond with some program in the second/third quarter which will feel good but not help much. The industry will suffer from a triple whammy: over-leveraged debt coming due, declining economics, and rising interest rates/spreads. The panic moment will come when the world wakes up one day and says that the U.S. is pumping out too many Treasury bills to pay for the bandaids that have grown into bandages. Markets will panic, interest rates will spike, traders will make a lot of money, and then the world will say Treasury rates are historically low to start with so it’s not so bad and life will go on.

Commercial real estate will start to recover along with the economy in fourth quarter 2009 and show some signs of life in the second/third quarter 2010 and start the upswing part of the cycle in 2011.

Conclusion, now’s the time to look for investments so your friends can tell you this year that you’re crazy, next year that maybe you were right, and 2011 that you were a genius (which you will prove by selling in 2012/13 before the 2014 “market adjustment”. Remember to defy history and instead buy low, sell high.

Posted in Finance & Economics, Real Estate Investing.